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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-06-22T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-22T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8766/-1
CME Note: from AR 12371
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T12:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-24T23:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jun 23 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8 (NOAA Scale
G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 23-Jun 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 23-Jun 25 2015

            Jun 23     Jun 24     Jun 25
00-03UT        7 (G3)     4          6 (G2)     
03-06UT        8 (G4)     4          6 (G2)     
06-09UT        6 (G2)     3          5 (G1)     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     2          4     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          4     
15-18UT        4          2          3     
18-21UT        4          3          3     
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     2

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jun 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2015

            Jun 24     Jun 25     Jun 26
00-03UT        4          7 (G3)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          7 (G3)     4     
06-09UT        4          6 (G2)     4     
09-12UT        3          6 (G2)     4     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     3     
15-18UT        4          5 (G1)     3     
18-21UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     3

Lead Time: 35.57 hour(s)
Difference: -10.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-23T01:23Z

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